Sunday, May 30, 2010

For a pessimist I'm pretty optimistic; Kendry Morales and his fractured leg.

Kendry Morales in pain after landing awkwardly on his leg celebrating a walk off grand slam to defeat the Seattle Mariners 5-1 Saturday afternoon in Anaheim, CA. It was revealed that Morales fractured his lower leg and is expected to be out for 10-12 weeks after undergoing surgery Sunday. Photo credit to Gina Ferazzi / Los Angeles Times

It was a scene that took such a twist that M. Night Shyamalan would be jealous. A moment so melancholy that even The Smiths would be hard pressed to match such a sight. One minute Kendry Morales is pumping his fist and flipping his helmet after hitting a walk-off grand slam to lift his Angels passed the Seattle Mariners. The next, he's being carted off after collapsing after leaping onto home plate into a sea of teammates (something that is customary after a walk off home run, mind you) and landing awkwardly.

Morales, according to Angels announcer Victor Rojas' twitter feed will have surgery Sunday for a fractured lower leg. Various reports have the slugger out 10-12 weeks; basically until September. Morales is currently leading the club in most offensive categories, including all three triple crown categories (.290/11/39). To say a long period of absence from Morales in a mostly lethargic offense is catastrophic would be an understatement. However, unlike most of my brethren Angel fans, I don't think Morales' injury is the end of the world.

Will Kendry's bat be missed? Of course. Morales was the Angels big bat. He was on pace for a mammoth 35 home run, 124 RBI season before the injury. He was heads and shoulders above everybody in those three triple crown categories, with Torii Hunter second in both RBI's (29) and home runs (7, tied with Mike Napoli), and Bobby Abreu behind Morales in average (.276). So barring an unlikely trade for another first baseman (which we'll get to in a bit), the Angels will be hard pressed to find any one person to duplicate Kendry's production.

However, keep in mind that through the first third of this season the Angels offense has completely under-achieved. Howie Kendrick, a career .296 hitter is hitting just .256 on the season. Juan Rivera, who last year had a line of .287.25/88 (.810 OPS) is hitting just .230 and is on-pace to hit 21 home runs and drive in 70 runs, with an OPS nearly .150 points lower. Hideki Matsui is playing WELL below his career averages of .289/25/104 that Angel skipper Mike Scioscia is contemplating benching the Japanese slugger against left-handers. Bobby Abreu's having a decent season thus far, and is showing more power then he did last year, but hasn't been the offensive force/on-base machine the Angels saw last season. Leadoff hitter Erick Aybar, after enjoying a breakout 2009, is hitting more than .60 points lower then he did last season. And Brandon Wood has been a complete and total bust thus far.

Throw in the AL's worst bullpen, an early season struggle from Joe Saunders, erratic pitching from Joel Pineiro and whatever the hell is wrong with Scott Kazmir, and you would think that the Angels wouldn't have a fighting chance at a playoff spot, yet alone even be sniffing .500.

Yet they're just three games under (24-27) and just 3.5 games behind first place Oakland. And remember, last season the Angels were 29-29 through their first 58 games. So anything is possible.

Is it realistic to believe that so many Angels will finish well below their career averages? I don't think so. Again, losing Morales hurts, but let's take a glass-half-full approach rather then screaming about how the sky is falling.

Morales injury means a few things. One is that Maicer Izturis will assume third base duties assuming that Brandon Wood will return as an option at first base. Other options include: Juan Rivera, Mike Napoli, Michael Ryan, Kevin Fransden, Howie Kendrick and Robb Quinlan. If it were me, I'd use the next ten to fourteen days or so to get Napoli better acquainted with first base (has had started there 68 times in the minors, but none since 2004) so when Jeff Mathis rejoins the team Napoli can take over at first. When Brandon Wood returns from the DL he assumes the "Izturis" role playing both third and first to spell Izturis/Napoli when needed. This could be two or three times a week as Napoli could also DH on days Matsui or Rivera need days off. The Angels could then field a lineup that looks something like this:

3b: Maicer Izturis
2b: Howie Kendrick
RF: Bobby Abreu
CF: Torii Hunter
1b: Mike Napoli
LF: Juan Rivera
DH: Hideki Matsui
C: Jeff Mathis
SS: Erick Aybar

Sure that lineup is missing some punch, but it's still very solid provided any combination of Rivera, Matsui and Kendrick regain their stroke. And lets not forget, it wasn't until injuries forced both Vladimir Guerrero and Hunter off the field last year that Morales broke out. The same could very well happen here.

Couple that with a suddenly sharp pitching staff led by Cy-Young contender (and, dare I say staff Ace) Jered Weaver, the Angels should be able to contend.
And as for Mike Napoli. The guy will finally get un-interrupted playing time and we'll finally see what Mike Napoli can do. Napoli is projected to get 456 at-bats this season and hit 26 home runs, driving in 64. Napoli has never had more than 382 at bats in a season, which came last year, yet has managed to hit 20 home runs in each of the last two years. According to ESPN.com's player card for Napoli, his 162 game seasonal average would give him a .256/.356/.495 line, with 29 home runs and 79 RBI's. If Napoli can put up numbers near his projected line and/or 162 game seasonal average, then the Angels can at least mask some of the power lost by Morales.

And if it turns out that either Rivera or Matsui isn't going to find their stroke this year, there's always the trade avenue. Paul Konerko or Lance Berkman could be fill-in candidates via trade. But don't expect Prince Fielder or Adrian Gonzalez to come walking through that door (heh, heh Rick Pitino), they'd come at far too highly a price. Remember, Morales is under contract until 2013. He's still the first baseman of the future. Plus, I personally think the Angels have the in-house personel to manage/compete while Morales is out. This lineup will prodcue.
Of course, this is all hypothetical. Things could go the complete opposite and this season could just crumble. But the Angels have shown time and time again (especially last season after the loss of Nick Adenhart) that when the going get's tough, these Halos get going. Plus, it's never fun to dwell on the bad. Look up, not down.

So the 2010 Angels are at a crossroads. Morales is out until at least September. Like Torii Hunter said last season, it's time for these guys to grow some...well... you know. I think they have what it takes. At least, I sure hope.

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